押注联储转向的一些思考

继续翻旧账

虽然仅仅过去了一年半的押注时间，但是联储不知道大家还是否记得2021年年初时的情况。当时10年期美债收益率也有一波非常凌厉的押注上行，此后风险资产出现了两个月左右的联储下跌，很多投资者也是押注叫苦不迭。此时恰好临近3月的联储FOMC议息会议，甚至有人在当时营造联储实施OT和YCC的押注舆论。实际上就是联储美债长端上太快了，大家希望长端不要上这么快。押注当然，联储搬出来的押注名头还是“金融稳定风险”和“海外不确定性”，这两个属于老三样了，联储还有就是押注一个“政治因素”（中期选举），2016年的联储时候也有很多人搬出来过。我觉得鲍叔在去年的押注表态以及前副主席费希尔的表态是非常有代表性的，供大家参考：

And conduct policy, of course, here. Our focus is on -- our objectives are domestic ones.

We monitor developments abroad because we know that those can affect our outcomes.

by Jerome Powell March.2021

So we are close to our targets. Not only that, the behavior of employment has been remarkably resilient. During the past two years we have been concerned at various stages by the possible negative effects on the U.S. economy of the Greek debt crisis, by the 20 percent appreciation of the trade-weighted dollar, by the Chinese growth slowdown and accompanying exchange rate uncertainties, by the financial market turbulence during the first six weeks of this year, by the dismaying pothole in job growth this May, and by Brexit – among other shocks. Yet, even amid these shocks, the labor market continued to improve: Employment has continued to increase, and the unemployment rate is currently close to most estimates of the natural rate.

Speech by Mr Stanley Fischer, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the “Program on the World Economy”, a conference sponsored by The Aspen Institute, Aspen, Colorado, 21 August 2016.

鲍威尔说得非常清楚，我们的本土目标更重要。现在显然本土目标（通胀和就业）都没达到……

而2016年时费希尔的表态就更好地补充了鲍威尔的说辞——对所谓的“外部风险”做了非常明晰的界定，并提供了美联储内部看待外部风险的视角。

简言之——美联储看待外部风险的唯一标准就是这些外部风险最终有没有影响到美联储的法定目标——即充分就业与通胀。这使得市场最终还是回到了美国的就业数据和通胀数据上。

你会发现现在的情况和当时很类似，2016年是希腊危机、英国退欧、中国减速，美指同样犀利升值20%。政治意外则有特朗普的上台。

而有关“金融稳定”，还是老三样：